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The UK has suspended 30 arms export licences to Israel from a total of about 350. The decision came after a review by the new Labour government听听that there was a 鈥渃lear risk鈥� the arms could be used in serious violations of international humanitarian law in the war in Gaza.

The suspensions mark a notable 鈥� if only modest 鈥� policy shift from the previous government. But they won鈥檛 change much in Gaza, where the war is approaching its first anniversary.

The government was听听to link the suspended licences to any specific violations of law. And, notably, the decision was not based solely on Israel鈥檚听, due to the lack of definitive evidence available from outside the enclave.

However, the assessment did state that the听听and the scale of destruction were of great concern, while also听听what it calls 鈥渃redible claims鈥� of the mistreatment of Palestinian detainees.

At the same time, the review argued that Israel could be doing more to alleviate the 鈥渁ppalling humanitarian situation鈥� in Gaza by ensuring that food and medical supplies reach civilians.

Israel听听that it is facilitating the entry of aid into Gaza. But听听that the conditions created by Israel, including onerous inspections, destroyed roads and a lack of security, have听听distribution efforts.

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What effect will the suspensions have?

The听听include components for military aircraft, including fighter planes, helicopters and drones, as well as items used for ground targeting.

However, aside from the fact that the suspensions will affect less than 10% of the UK鈥檚 existing arms export licenses,听听of Israel鈥檚 total arms imports come from the UK. So, the suspensions are unlikely to have any material impact on Israel鈥檚 military operations.

The UK鈥檚 arms sales to Israel totalled about听听in 2022. This compares to the US$3.8 billion (拢2.9 billion) in military assistance that the US provides to Israel each year. Germany is the second-largest arms exporter to Israel, providing it with听听worth of arms in 2023.听听that have supplied arms to Israel in the past have already introduced export suspensions of some kind.

The licence suspensions will also not apply to all British-made components in the global听听programme. F-35 fighter jets have been used by Israel to conduct air听听in Gaza, causing extensive damage and loss of life.

The move to suspend the export of some weapons to Israel is not unprecedented. Prime ministers both from the Labour and Conservative parties have听听arms sales to Israel in the past. And the US even听听some weapons shipments in May as Israel moved to invade the Gazan city of Rafah. However, the suspensions still mark a symbolic听听on Israel by one of its close allies.

The announcement also came just a month after the UK dropped the previous government鈥檚 planned听听to the International Criminal Court (ICC) regarding arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, and after the government听听for Unrwa, the UN agency that aids Palestinian refugees.

But the UK鈥檚 foreign secretary, David Lammy, has reiterated the UK鈥檚 support for Israel to defend itself, and emphasised that the suspensions do not constitute an听听or a blanket ban.

He has also underscored that the decisions, which are based on the UK鈥檚听, were not a听听on whether Israel had breached international law.

In his comments to Parliament on the suspensions, he听: 鈥淭his is a forward-looking evaluation, not a determination of innocence or guilt, and it does not prejudge any future determinations by the competent courts.鈥�

The statement was made in reference to the ongoing听听against Israel at the International Court of Justice, and the request for听听for Israeli leaders on charges of war crimes by the ICC.

The suspensions have not gone down well in Israel. In a statement, Israeli foreign minister, Israel Katz,听听that his country was 鈥渄isappointed by a series of decisions鈥� made by the new UK government, including those regarding arms exports. Katz said that the latest decision 鈥渟ends a very problematic message鈥� to Hamas and Iran.

Israeli defence minister, Yoav Gallant, likewise said he was听听by the UK鈥檚 decision. He also lamented that the announcement came days after six hostages were killed in Gaza and as Israel鈥檚 fight with Hezbollah in the north of the country intensifies. Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, described the decision as 鈥渟hameful鈥� in a听.

But non-governmental organisations and activists seeking a full ban on arms exports to Israel have said the decision is merely听. Others have听听the F-35 exception as a major loophole.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Samuel Perlo-Freeman of the Campaign Against Arms Trade described the exception as 鈥渁 bit like saying you鈥檙e going vegetarian except for bacon鈥�.

The decision also moves the UK further from the Biden administration鈥檚 policy of providing mostly unconditional aid to Israel. Yet it could lay out a model for a potential administration led by Kamala Harris to leverage the听, which prevents US aid going to security forces suspected of committing human rights violations.

The law has听听to Israel. But it may warrant more consideration, as听听for by various state department officials, if ceasefire negotiations听.

In all honest assessments, the UK鈥檚 leverage in the Gaza war is limited, and the decision by Labour to suspend some arms export licenses won鈥檛 be a game-changer on its own. But听听still matter, especially when perceived as part of a broader shift on a highly fraught and protracted conflict.

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