皇家华人

奥谤颈迟迟别苍听产测 , Centre for US Politics.
Published 6 Jan 2023.

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Kevin McCarthy has听听speaker of the US House of Representatives after 15 gruelling votes 鈥� a longer process than has been needed than at any time since the civil war. Around 20 of his fellow Republicans had been refusing to approve his appointment to the role 鈥� one of the most powerful in US politics 鈥� and required numerous concessions to bring enough of them on board.

Republicans promised an obstructionist government. But they didn鈥檛 campaign on obstructing themselves. For a tiny minority of Republicans from ruby-red districts, sticking it to McCarthy has been the ultimate power play. Setting the party鈥檚 鈥渆stablishment鈥� on fire doesn鈥檛 just seem like a byproduct of the venture, more and more it looks to be听.

Many experts, including former House speaker Newt Gingrich,听听that the huffing and puffing of the anti-McCarthy camp would end with a prompt capitulation to party leadership before the first-round vote. Instead, they鈥檝e sowed mayhem. McCarthy听听after offering听听(and making听) failed. By contrast, his rebel opponents came armed not only with a strategy 鈥� but one that successfully brought the House to a standstill.

Beyond Trump

While led by Trump acolytes, it鈥檚 important to stress that the anti-McCarthy campaign wasn鈥檛 a Trump-led plot. If anything, it exposed the limits of Trump鈥檚 power. Before the first speaker vote, Trump听听Republicans to rally behind McCarthy, who is the Republican leader in the House. After the initial standoff, he听听on Truth Social: 鈥淰ote for Kevin, close the deal.鈥� However, Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, who once听听Trumpism 鈥渢he greatest show on earth鈥�,听听the comments as 鈥渟ad鈥�. Lauren Boebert, the Trumpiest of Trump loyalists听: 鈥淭rump needs to tell Kevin McCarthy that sir 鈥� it鈥檚 time to withdraw.鈥�

An irony of the speaker fiasco is that it has featured extreme elements of the Republican party exerting power in the wake of the midterm elections in which their raison d鈥櫭猼re 鈥� blowing up 鈥渢he system鈥� 鈥� had been roundly rejected. The 2022 midterms were defined by nothing if not a repudiation of election-denying firebrands and extreme听. And yet, some of the central players in听, including those who made a name for themselves by defending January 6, have also played starring roles in efforts to stoke bedlam in the fight over the speaker鈥檚 gavel.

The quarrel has proven that, despite setbacks, many Republicans both in Washington and in the GOP voter base still can鈥檛 get enough of the flame-throwing. Some have radicalised even beyond the听.听, which creates safe electoral seats, coupled with primaries in which the incentive is to court the extreme fringes of听, means that right-wing efforts to shake up Capitol Hill won鈥檛 just peter out. In the long run, the goal is 鈥渢o deal a blow against a Republican system that鈥檚 hostile to conservatives,鈥澨�听Virginia Representative Bob Good.

Still united against Biden

Conventional wisdom is that the hangover from the speaker fiasco will听, limiting their ability to govern. Yet with Joe Biden in the Oval Office and a Democrat-controlled Senate, it鈥檚 worth staying clear-eyed about the reality: governing was never听. Instead, the priorities will remain stymieing the White House agenda and holding Biden鈥檚 feet to the fire. Here, it鈥檚 hard to argue that Republicans aren鈥檛 four-square behind bloodying the president鈥檚 nose.

Any hopes that Biden has of pushing through more big ticket policies are no less听听just because Republicans delayed selecting a House speaker. Moreover, few items make the whole of the GOP salivate more than probing the hard drive of the听, or digging into a听, from the听, to the听, to the Pentagon鈥檚听.

The speaker debacle has further bruised the reputation of Republicans. It鈥檚 exposed, more than caused,听听between the 鈥渆stablishment鈥� and 鈥渦ltra-MAGA鈥� wings of the party. The rifts won鈥檛 heal overnight, and there鈥檚 likely more bad blood to come. Intra-party retribution behind the scenes seems inevitable. All of this occurred because of another humiliation 鈥� the听听in November鈥檚 midterms 鈥� which gave McCarthy a much slimmer majority than expected.

House Democrats have been emboldened from the sidelines by watching their opponents eat their own. But it鈥檚 possible to overstate the practical consequences for governing, and to exaggerate how much Republicans are on the back foot. Gridlock will still be the听听for two years, and no amount of Republican infighting will keep its members鈥� eyes off the prize: embarrassing Biden, retaking the White House, and regaining a majority in Congress in 2024.
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